US, Israeli Intelligence Reveal Dangerous Information About Iran’s Nuclear Program

US and Israeli intelligence agencies are examining new information about computer modeling by Iranian scientists that could be used to research and develop nuclear weapons, two US officials, as well as a current and a former Israeli official, told Axios.

Some US and Israeli officials said the intelligence was a worrying sign about Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but other officials on both sides said it was just a “blip” that did not represent a shift in Iran’s policy and strategy toward weapons.

The Iranian Nuclear Danger

Senior US and Israeli officials will meet at the White House on Thursday as part of the US-Israel Advisory Group to discuss the status of Iran’s nuclear program and other issues. It will be the first high-level, in-depth discussion between the US and Israel on Iran’s nuclear program since March 2023.

One Israeli official said that after the intelligence failure on Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel, the Israeli intelligence community is taking any small piece of information about possible Iranian moves toward nuclear weapons more seriously.

The U.S. intelligence community assessed in 2007 that Iran has not had an active military nuclear program since 2003. U.S. officials told Axios that assessment has not changed.

Weaponized Nuclear Program

A U.S. official and an Israeli official said that intelligence agencies in both countries have no indication that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has ordered the resumption of a military nuclear program. Another U.S. official said that “there is no change in our assessment that Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device.”

In March, the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported that Iran was working to acquire some of the components needed to produce a nuclear warhead, such as precision detonators.

“If Iran is now taking preliminary steps that would help build a nuclear warhead, it would contradict the longstanding U.S. intelligence consensus that it ended its weapons work in 2003,” said Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Documents found in Iran’s nuclear archive, stolen by Israel’s Mossad in 2018, showed that Iranian nuclear scientists were modeling nuclear detonations before 2003.

As part of the 2015 nuclear deal with the United States and other world powers, Iran committed not to engage in activities that are part of the design and development of nuclear weapons, including the use of computer models to simulate nuclear explosive devices.

A report by the International Atomic Energy Agency released in late May said Iran had about 142 kilograms of 60%-enriched uranium, an increase of more than 20 kilograms since the previous report in February.

Uranium Enrichment

It would take Iran only a few weeks to enrich that amount of uranium to 90%, the level required to make a nuclear weapon, according to assessments by U.S. and Israeli intelligence agencies.

Iran would need about 42 kilograms of 90%-enriched uranium to make a single nuclear bomb.

The new intelligence will be one of the issues discussed Thursday at the US-Israel Strategic Forum on Iran. A US official said there were no specific conclusions about the new intelligence, but it raises questions that need to be discussed between the US and Israel.

The US side will be led by White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, and the Israeli side will be led by Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi. The meeting follows Sullivan’s recent visit to Israel a few weeks ago.

During his meetings in Israel, Netanyahu and his aides asked for an in-depth discussion on the status of Iran’s nuclear program. “Both the US and Israel believe that the time is right to talk about this, discuss how to explain Iran’s actions and coordinate on what needs to be done,” a US official said.

US-Iranian Talks

In recent months, the US and Iran have been engaged in indirect talks mediated by Oman in an attempt to reach informal understandings on temporary restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program.

U.S. officials said the effort was behind the U.S. attempt to persuade France, the United Kingdom and Germany not to move forward with a resolution condemning Iran through the International Atomic Energy Agency two weeks ago for its failure to cooperate with inspectors.

The officials said the U.S. was concerned that such a move could derail indirect negotiations with Iran and prompt the Iranians to escalate their nuclear program.

After the resolution passed, Iran responded by installing new, more advanced centrifuges at its underground uranium enrichment facility at Fordow.